Do 1 Million Taxpayers Carry South Africa? The Minister's Numbers

Watch: Do 1 Million Taxpayers Carry South Africa? Godongwana’s Own Numbers (The Riaan Roux Show)

About 1 million taxpayers pay most of the personal income tax in South Africa. The numbers come from Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, in written replies to Parliament, and Newsday put them in a headline saying these people keep the whole country functioning.

If you earn a salary and look at what SARS takes off it every month, you may well be one of them. And you may be asking what you get back. Do you go to a state hospital, or do you pay for medical aid? Do your children go to a free state school, or do you pay school fees?

My view is that the article is right. The ANC-led government’s own reply describes the income tax base as narrow and dependent on a small number of high earners. When it was asked for a measurable target to ease the tax burden, it gave none.

What the minister told Parliament

Sanele Mwali, an MK Party MP on the Standing Committee on Finance, asked how much of the tax take comes from individuals and households, and what the state is doing to ease the burden. The minister’s written reply (NW5132, via PMG) says personal income tax will bring in R844.8 billion in 2026/27. That is 39.7% of all the tax the state collects, which makes it the biggest source of tax money the ANC-led government has.

“Individuals earning more than R750 000 per annum contribute just over 60 percent of total PIT revenue.”
Minister of Finance, written reply NW5132

The same reply says anyone under 65 who earns less than R99 000 a year pays no income tax at all. Newsday works out that the group earning above R750 000 is about 1.07 million people.

In June, in a reply to MP Pinky Mngadi (NW2867, via PMG), the minister went further. Almost half of personal income tax, he said, is paid by almost 8% of taxpayers: those with a taxable income above R1 million a year. The reply describes it in these words:

“a narrow personal income tax base which is dependent on a small number of high income taxpayers for the bulk of revenue collections”
Minister of Finance, written reply NW2867, 1 June 2026

Walk through the numbers one step at a time:

Stats SA puts the population at 63.5 million people.
SARS has 26.2 million individuals registered for income tax (Tax Statistics 2025, via BusinessTech).
Of those, 9.15 million are active and file returns.
About 1 million of them pay more than 60% of the income tax.

On the other side of the ledger, the 2026 Budget says 26.5 million people receive a social grant, counting the SRD grant. For every person in that top group of taxpayers, about 25 people receive a grant. The headline is Newsday’s. The numbers under it are the minister’s own.

What 2 to 3 cents buys

Newsday spoke to Dawie Roodt, the chief economist at the Efficient Group.

“A family earning R1 million per year gets back roughly two to three cents from the state in benefits for every rand they pay in tax.”
Dawie Roodt, to Newsday

His reasoning is about what that family uses. He told Newsday that such a family does not use state healthcare because it has medical aid, cannot get a social grant, and has its own pension fund. Then he said this:

“That single family earning R1 million per year effectively carries the cost of healthcare, education, policing, and similar services for 20 poor families.”
Dawie Roodt, to Newsday

The 2 to 3 cents is Roodt’s own estimate, and he has worked it out before. In November 2025, BusinessTech reported his calculation that a household earning R1 million a year gets less than 5 cents of value for every rand it pays. He said that sum assumes the state wastes nothing, and then he said:

“I know this is not the case. Due to corruption, incompetence, and mismanagement, there is a lot of wastage in the government.”
Dawie Roodt, to BusinessTech

So the real return, on his own reasoning, is lower than his estimate.

Roodt has also said that school fees, private security and medical aid can be seen as an extra tax on households. In June 2026, BusinessTech worked out that someone earning R1 million a year pays about R21 900 a month on top of income tax, in VAT, fuel taxes, rates, school fees, medical aid and security.

In my view, that is the part that stings. These families pay for the state service through their tax, and then they pay again for the private one, because the state service does not work for them.

Could the country run without them?

The 2026 Budget expects R2.13 trillion in tax for 2026/27:

Personal income tax: R844.8 billion
VAT: R521.4 billion
Company tax: R364.3 billion
Customs and excise duties: R159.4 billion
Fuel levies: R104.9 billion
Other taxes: R132.3 billion

The state also has income that is not tax, such as interest, fees and the money paid into funds like the UIF. Counting all of it, the state expects R2.35 trillion for the year.

Now take income tax out. Without the R844.8 billion, the R2.35 trillion drops to about R1.5 trillion. The state plans to spend R2.67 trillion. That leaves about R1.17 trillion with nothing to pay for it, which is 44% of everything the state spends.

Look at what R1.5 trillion would have to cover. Interest on the state’s debt is R432.4 billion. Social development, which includes the grants, is R446.6 billion. Learning and culture, which covers schools and universities, is R527.2 billion. Health is R310.4 billion. Those 4 alone add up to R1.72 trillion, more than all the money left, before a single police officer is paid.

Then look at the 1 million on their own. Just over 60% of R844.8 billion is more than R500 billion. That one group pays more than the whole social development budget, grants included, and more than the R432.4 billion the state spends on interest on its debt.

Someone will say that everybody pays tax, because everybody pays VAT. That is true. A grant recipient pays 15% VAT on most of what they buy. But the minister answered that point himself. In April 2026, in a reply to MK Party MP Sithembile Nkosi, Godongwana said the top 4 income groups out of 10 account for over 75% of VAT revenue (Cape Argus, April 2026).

So the higher earners carry most of the second biggest tax as well. Without them, the state could not pay its bills, and on those numbers, the headline holds.

What the minister said about relief

Mwali’s question had a second part. He asked what measurable target the ANC-led government has set to reduce the tax burden on low and middle-income households over the next 3 years.

The reply gives no target. It says the tax brackets were adjusted for inflation at the last Budget, and that future changes will be announced in the Budget each February.

An inflation adjustment is not a tax cut. It only stops inflation from pushing you into a higher bracket when your increase does no more than keep up with prices. According to Treasury’s own Budget summary, this adjustment came after 2 years with no inflation relief at all.

In April, Nkosi asked whether Treasury would consider lowering personal income tax. Godongwana’s answer:

“Lowering the actual PIT tax rates would be costly to the fiscus.”
Enoch Godongwana, reply to Sithembile Nkosi, via Cape Argus

The fiscus is the state’s purse. The top rate stays at 45%, on every rand earned above R1 878 600 a year (SARS tax tables 2026/27).

Roodt sees it differently. Newsday reports his view that South Africa is already past the limit of what it can tax, and that higher rates push people to emigrate, avoid tax or move their money out of the country, so the state ends up collecting less. He also says the state keeps overspending while the economy grows slowly, which squeezes the same small group even harder.

The Budget shows the overspending in its own numbers. The state plans to borrow R324.3 billion in 2026/27 to cover the gap between what it collects and what it spends. The interest on its debt, R432.4 billion, is more than 3 times the R140.1 billion it spends on police services.

Do 1 million taxpayers carry South Africa?

In my view, yes. The minister’s own replies show it, and his reply calls the income tax base narrow and dependent on a small number of people.

That should worry the ANC-led government more than anyone. A state that depends on 1 million people cannot afford to lose them, and these are the people with the means to leave. When an MP asked for a plan to ease the load, the answer was an inflation adjustment and a promise to say more in February.

If you are one of those taxpayers, you already know what you pay and what you get back. The question for Enoch Godongwana is how long he expects 1 million people to carry the rest of the country.

Is it fair that the top earners pay most of the income tax because they earn the most, or has the ANC-led government squeezed this group too far? Tell me in the comments under the video.