Mbalula Wants the DA Out. Can the ANC Govern Without Them?

Fikile Mbalula wants the ANC to review the DA’s place in the Government of National Unity. He said it in tears at Constitution Hill, minutes after the Constitutional Court put 181 ANC candidates back on the ballot, and shortly before eNCA reported that he had collapsed in front of the cameras.

The DA had taken the Electoral Commission’s side against the ANC in that case. Mbalula’s answer was that the ANC must look for other partners, and that nothing binds it to the DA forever. Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi shared the news on X with 3 words, “We said it.” Other ANC supporters on X wrote that the ANC, the SACP, MK and the EFF must unite.

So the old fear is back. If the DA walks out, or is pushed out, do the EFF and the MK Party walk in and form what the DA calls the Doomsday Coalition? And if they do not, can the ANC run the country without the DA at all?

I am going to take you through the seats in Parliament, which leave the ANC side with exactly 200 of the 400 seats once the DA is gone. I will show you what Mbalula himself said in 2025 about bringing Julius Malema into government, and what happens to the ANC’s voters when it shares power with the parties that broke away from it.

At the end, I will give you my answer. In my view, Mbalula’s threat is empty, and the Doomsday Coalition is a scarecrow the DA uses to justify staying. It may be time for the DA to walk out, let the GNU collapse, and leave a party that won 40% of the vote to face Parliament without a majority.

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What did Mbalula say?

On Thursday 15 October 2026, the Constitutional Court ruled 7 to 2 in favour of the ANC. The ANC had uploaded its candidate lists for 6 municipalities, including Mangaung, and paid its deposits, but it never clicked the Electoral Commission’s “Submit as Final” button before the deadline of 28 August. The court ordered the Electoral Commission to put those lists and ward candidates on the ballot for the local government elections on 4 November, 181 candidates in all.

2 of the justices, Basson and Savage, would have dismissed the ANC’s appeal, and the court has not yet given its reasons. According to Daily Maverick, Justice Savage said the ANC’s failure appeared “grossly negligent”.

The DA joined the case on the side of the Electoral Commission. Its argument was that if the rule is bent for the ANC, it has to be bent for every party in the same position, or the election is not free and fair. According to EWN, 45 parties had loaded 2 274 candidates onto the system without submitting them.

I think the DA had a point. If you upload all your documents to SARS but never press submit, your tax return has not been filed, and the penalty is yours. The ANC knew where the button was. According to the Electoral Commission’s records, it pressed it for 251 other municipalities, some of them at 16:57 and 16:58 on 28 August, minutes before the deadline.

The ANC first blamed a glitch in the Commission’s system. The Commission told the Electoral Court that its audit trail showed no downtime. In the Constitutional Court, the ANC’s argument became that the button is not in the law, and in his written comments Mbalula called it “a button on a screen”.

This has happened before. In 2021, the ANC missed the candidate deadline in 93 municipalities and also blamed the Commission’s system, until its own deputy secretary-general, Jessie Duarte, said the fault was the ANC’s. The Commission reopened registration. The DA objected, and the Constitutional Court let the reopening stand.

In my view, that is one set of rules for the ANC and another for everyone else. If the other parties with candidates in the same position now point to this ruling, I do not see how anyone tells them no.

After the ruling, an emotional Mbalula spoke to the media at Constitution Hill. On camera, he said:

“I want to say something about those who stood against us, and I will say it carefully. They are known. […] There are matters, comrades, that this movement will now have to sit down and discuss. And one of those matters is partners in the Government of National Unity, and that is the DA. We must review the DA in the Government of National Unity.”

Fikile Mbalula, Constitution Hill, 15 October 2026 (video: Newslive SA)

Daily Maverick reported more of what he said. He said, “It’s not a blackmail to anyone.” He also said, “We must look for other partners,” and, “there’s nothing that binds us forever with the DA, in the Government of National Unity.”

Shortly after that, he could not go on. SABC News reported that he appeared unwell and was unable to continue his briefing, and eNCA reported that he had collapsed. His spokesperson, Mahlengi Bhengu, said he was receiving medical attention. From 13:42 that afternoon, his account on X was posting again, starting with a written version of his comments issued by the ANC.

The written version reads differently from what he said in front of the cameras. It does not name the DA. It says that coming to court “to argue against the enfranchisement of hundreds of thousands of South Africans does not sit easily” beside the GNU’s Statement of Intent, and that there are matters the movement “will now have to sit down and discuss.” The lines about reviewing the DA and looking for other partners are not in it.

The DA’s reply came from Ashor Sarupen, the chair of its Federal Council. He said, “We note Fikile Mbalula’s threats about the GNU.” He said, “The reality is that the DA is not in the GNU to get along.”

The ANC’s own account on X did not repeat the threat either. On the afternoon of 15 October, it was posting campaign pictures from Sedibeng. The senior ANC voice that did cheer it on was Lesufi, the premier who brought the EFF into the Gauteng government in April 2026. I will come back to him.

Can the ANC replace the DA?

The seats in Parliament decide this, so start there. In the May 2024 election, the ANC won 40.2% of the vote and 159 of the 400 seats in the National Assembly. A majority is 201 seats. The DA won 87.

The GNU is 10 parties with 287 seats between them. Take away the DA’s 87, and the ANC and its 8 smaller partners hold exactly 200 seats. Everyone else in Parliament, with the DA added, would also hold exactly 200. That is a tie, and neither side has a majority. Without the DA, the GNU as it stands collapses.

The EFF on its own cannot fix that for the ANC. The ANC’s 159 seats plus the EFF’s 39 make 198. The ANC would need the EFF plus its small partners, or Jacob Zuma’s MK Party and its 58 seats.

On paper, there is an easier way. The ANC side only needs 1 more seat to reach 201, and ActionSA has 6. In April 2025, when the DA voted against the budget framework, the ANC got it through by 194 votes to 182 with the help of ActionSA and other small parties. The price was the VAT increase, which National Treasury dropped later that month.

But ActionSA turned down the GNU in June 2024 and chose the opposition benches. A government that depends on a handful of borrowed seats has to bargain for every budget. In my view, that would be minority rule in all but name, and it is a far more likely future without the DA than a Doomsday Coalition.

There is one thing the ANC does not need the DA for. Removing a President takes 201 votes, and without the DA in the GNU, the rest of Parliament has only 200. Cyril Ramaphosa would survive a motion of no confidence, as long as his 8 small partners stayed with him. What the ANC could not be sure of is passing a single budget.

Why does Mbalula keep making this threat?

This is not the first time the ANC has shown the DA the door. In December 2024, ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe said the DA could walk away. He said, “If the DA walks away, we will have a working GNU.” He said the EFF and MK were waiting. In his words, “They are waiting there; they want to come but they don’t want to sit in the same cabinet with the DA.”

In June 2025, after the DA threatened a motion of no confidence in President Ramaphosa, Mbalula said, “Even if the DA leaves, the GNU would never collapse.” He said, “Others will come in. They’re knocking hard on the door and want to get in.” 16 months later, the DA is still in the Cabinet and no new party has joined the GNU.

Mbalula said something very different 2 months before that. In April 2025 he was asked about bringing Julius Malema into the GNU, and the Mail and Guardian reported his answer. He said, “He could actually be the worst, he could actually be one who could fast-track our demise.” He said, “He’s too dangerous because he comes in many colours, he is not straight.”

So in April 2025, the ANC’s secretary-general said Malema in government could speed up the end of the ANC. In October 2026, the same man says the ANC must look for other partners. He has not said which partners, and no ANC structure has backed his call so far.

The timing helps explain it. The candidates the court put back on the ballot were left off on his watch. In September 2026, the Sunday Times reported that at least 9 members of the ANC’s own national executive wanted him held personally responsible. In my view, a court win followed by a fight with the DA moves the conversation away from that.

Is the Doomsday Coalition real?

The DA has used the Doomsday Coalition as its reason for being in the GNU from the start. In April 2024, EWN reported John Steenhuisen warning that under a Doomsday Coalition of the ANC, the EFF and MK, South Africa would rapidly descend into chaos. In June 2024, Helen Zille said the DA prevented exactly that by joining the government.

On X, the DA is attacking what it calls the ANC-EFF government in Nelson Mandela Bay, and Malema’s track record. I covered the Doomsday Coalition in my video in February, The Doomsday Coalition Lie, and the evidence since then points the same way.

On 6 October 2026, the political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki spoke to Rob Hersov on the Truth Report. Newsday reported him saying, “The ANC is kept relevant in power by the DA.” On the Doomsday Coalition, he said:

“That’s what the EFF is to the DA, the tokoloshe of the DA. The ANC can never work with the EFF because the EFF wants to destroy the ANC. […] That’s why Jacob Zuma’s MK party left the ANC and set up its own party. They can never work together. […] It’s like the Xhosa people’s belief in the tokoloshe. It doesn’t exist.”

Moeletsi Mbeki, Truth Report with Rob Hersov, 6 October 2026 (video)

Mbeki does not say the DA should leave. He wants it to stay in the GNU and push the ANC for new policies.

The parties themselves set conditions the ANC has not met. In December 2024, Malema told EFF delegates in Soweto that the EFF would join only once the DA was out. He said, “Once Helen Zille is out, siyangena,” which means “we are going in”. In 2024, MK’s condition was that Ramaphosa had to go. Its spokesperson, Nhlamulo Ndhlela, said, “We will engage with the ANC, but we will not engage with the ANC of Ramaphosa.”

Where the ANC has governed with the EFF, it has kept control. In Ekurhuleni in February 2026, the ANC mayor cut EFF members from his mayoral committee, and the EFF walked out, saying the ANC was pushing it out of governance. In Tshwane in 2024, the Sunday Tribune reported Herman Mashaba of ActionSA saying that in its deal with the ANC and the EFF, the ANC, with the bigger share of the vote, calls the shots.

The GNU has gone the same way. The original agreement said a decision needed parties holding 60% of the seats, which meant the ANC and the DA had to agree. In November 2025, Sunday World reported that new rules would replace that with “general consensus”, under a forum chaired by Deputy President Paul Mashatile.

There is one place where the ANC did hand real power to the EFF. In April 2026, Lesufi brought the EFF into his minority government in Gauteng and made its provincial leader, Nkululeko Dunga, the MEC for Finance. In my view, that is what Lesufi was cheering on 15 October. The Financial Mail reported in April that a powerful faction inside the ANC wants to move the party away from the DA and towards the EFF and MK.

So the danger inside the ANC is real. But in Parliament, the ANC and the EFF together still fall short. A national deal would need the ANC’s small partners to sit in Cabinet with Malema, or it would need Zuma’s MK, and MK’s price has been Ramaphosa.

What happens to the ANC’s voters?

The second problem for the ANC is its own voters. The EFF was founded in 2013 by Julius Malema after the ANC expelled him. MK was launched by Jacob Zuma, a former ANC president, in December 2023. Both parties grew by taking ANC voters.

Mbalula said as much himself. In December 2025, in his report to the ANC’s National General Council, he said protest votes in Gauteng moved from the ANC to the EFF, and then to MK. He said the ANC is “weakened structurally, politically and morally”, and that voters will “shop around”.

KwaZulu-Natal shows how fast it can happen. In 2019, the ANC won 54.2% of the provincial vote there. In 2024 it won 17%, and MK, in its first election, won 45.35%. A study for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation found that the vast majority of MK’s support there came from the ANC.

The polls show the same pool. In July 2026, the Social Research Foundation found black voters split 36% ANC, 24% MK and 12% EFF. Nationally, the ANC has dropped from 40.2% in 2024 to between 31% and 34% in the 3 latest polls, and MK sits at about 15%.

If the ANC brings the EFF or MK into the national government, it hands them ministries, budgets and a seat at the table in front of the very voters they are taking from it. In my view, that is why Mbalula warned in 2025 that Malema could fast-track the ANC’s demise, and why his threat will stay a threat.

Should the DA walk out?

If the Doomsday Coalition is a scarecrow, what should the DA do instead? Under my video on Lesufi, one viewer asked me for a realistic, workable solution. This is my answer, starting with what the law allows.

The DA cannot force an early election by walking out. Under the Constitution, Parliament can dissolve itself only with 201 votes, and only once 3 years have passed since it was elected. The election was on 29 May 2024, so that door only opens around the end of May 2027.

The other route is a motion of no confidence in the President. That also needs 201 votes, which the DA could not reach without one of the ANC’s partners. And if it passed, Parliament would have to elect a new President, and the ANC, the EFF and MK together hold 256 seats. In my view, that is the one road that could actually build a Doomsday Coalition, and the DA would be the one opening it.

What the DA can force is the collapse of the GNU’s majority. The ANC would keep the presidency, but it would have to win every budget and every bill a few votes at a time, from parties that owe it nothing. In April 2025, that cost the ANC its VAT increase. In my view, a 40% party that has to earn every vote is what voters asked for in 2024.

Geordin Hill-Lewis, who now leads the DA, disagrees. In February 2026, TimesLIVE reported him saying, “a DA that resigns itself to permanent opposition status is weak.” In the same report he said, “A DA that drifts along quietly inside the GNU is equally weak.” I agree with the second line more than the first.

There is a real risk. The ANC’s conference in 2027 will choose Ramaphosa’s successor as party leader, and the faction the Financial Mail described wants the EFF and MK. But the DA sitting in Cabinet does not stop that conference. It only gives the ANC 87 seats of cover until then.

So, is the threat serious?

So is Mbalula’s threat serious? In my view, no. The ANC’s own written version of his comments left it out. Without the DA, the ANC side is 1 seat short of a majority, and the ANC and the EFF together still fall short. The party’s own secretary-general called Malema a danger to its survival, and every voter the ANC hands to the EFF or MK is a voter it may not get back.

The DA does not have to wait to be pushed. It can walk out, let the GNU collapse, and keep its 87 seats in opposition. That leaves a party that won 40% of the vote to govern as what it is, a minority. If the ANC really has other partners, it has had nearly 2 years of threats to find them.

So my question is for Fikile Mbalula and the ANC. If the DA is the problem, and other partners are knocking on the door, why has the ANC never opened it?

Sources

• Maroela Media, Heléne Mocke, ‘DA se plek as vennoot in RNE word hersien – Mbalula’, 15 October 2026 (source item): maroelamedia.co.za
• Daily Maverick, Nonkululeko Njilo, ‘Mbalula fires DA warning after ConCourt victory’, 15 October 2026: dailymaverick.co.za
• Mail & Guardian, ‘Constitutional Court rules in favour of ANC in IEC candidate nomination dispute’, 15 October 2026: mg.co.za
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• Truth Report with Rob Hersov, ‘Is The DA Keeping ANC in Power? | Moeletsi Mbeki’, 6 October 2026: youtu.be
• Constitutional Court of South Africa, order in ANC v Electoral Commission of South Africa and Democratic Alliance, CCT 282/26, 15 October 2026, as posted by Fikile Mbalula on X: x.com
• ANC, ‘Mbalula Doorstep Media: Comments at Constitution Hill’, 15 October 2026, as posted by Fikile Mbalula on X: x.com
• The Riaan Roux Show, ‘The Doomsday Coalition Lie’, 23 February 2026: youtu.be
• The Riaan Roux Show, ‘LESUFI – GNU is ANC’, 10 February 2026 (viewer comment): youtu.be
• Video: Newslive SA, Fikile Mbalula at Constitution Hill, 15 October 2026: youtube.com
• Video: Truth Report with Rob Hersov, “Is The DA Keeping ANC in Power? | Moeletsi Mbeki”, 6 October 2026: youtube.com
• Photos (Wikimedia Commons): Fikile Mbalula, Gwede Mantashe, Geordin Hill-Lewis and Jessie Duarte: eNCA, CC BY 3.0. Panyaza Lesufi: Korea.net (Jeon Han), CC BY-SA 2.0. Julius Malema: Gary van der Merwe, CC BY-SA 3.0. John Steenhuisen: Democratic Alliance, CC BY-SA 3.0 ZA. Helen Zille: public domain. Jacob Zuma: Presidential Press and Information Office (Russia), CC BY 4.0. Moeletsi Mbeki: Vysotsky, CC BY-SA 3.0. Herman Mashaba: US Embassy South Africa, public domain.